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Tropical Storm Maria Update #2

11:00pm EST September 16th, 2017

We continue to keep a watchful eye on TS Maria over the open Atlantic. The 11pm NHC update is listed below. Storm tracks shows a slight shift south on the track, which has it now passing 66 nautical miles south of St Thomas at it’s closest point. It still shows a high probability of bringing Tropical Storm force winds to the area on Wednesday, and could likely bring Hurricane force winds.

 

 

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The Island of St Croix, just 22 miles south of St Thomas, stands to recieve closer to the direct path of the storm! This will likely slow the relief efforts on St Thomas as Naval vessels will have to retreat to safer waters until the storm passes and the storm will likely impact air travel both private and commercial to the area beginning Tuesday. We will continue to post frequent updates as new information becomes available. We urge all islanders in the area to begin preparing for the coming storm as best you can! Our hearts and prayers are with you!

ZCZC MIATCPAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Maria Advisory Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017
1100 PM AST Sat Sep 16 2017
...MARIA MOVING WESTWARD TOWARD THE LESSER ANTILLES...
...NEW HURRICANE WATCHES ISSUED...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.5N 53.7W
ABOUT 545 MI...880 KM ESE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The Government of the Netherlands has issued a Hurricane Watch for
Saba and St. Eustatius.
The Meteorological Service of Curacao has issued a Hurricane Watch
for St. Maarten.
The Meteorological Service of Antigua has issued a Hurricane Watch
for Anguilla.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Antigua, Barbuda, St. Kitts, Nevis, and Montserrat
* Guadeloupe
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* Anguilla
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* St. Lucia
* Martinique
* Dominica
* Barbados
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles and the British and U. S.
Virgin Islands should monitor the progress of this system.
Additional Tropical Storm or Hurricane Watches and Warnings will
likely be issued early Sunday.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Maria was
located near latitude 12.5 North, longitude 53.7 West. Maria is
moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h).  A turn toward the
west-northwest and a slower forward speed are expected during next
couple of days.  On the forecast track, the center of Maria will be
near the Leeward Islands Monday or Monday night.
Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is expected during the next 48 hours, and Maria is
forecast to be a hurricane when it approaches the Leeward Islands.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch
area by Monday night or Tuesday, with tropical storm conditions
possible on Monday.  Tropical storm conditions are possible in the
tropical storm watch area on Monday.
STORM SURGE:  A dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and
destructive waves will raise water levels by as much as 3 to 5 feet
above normal tide levels within the hurricane watch area.
RAINFALL: Maria is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 6
to 12 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches across the
central and southern Leeward Islands through Tuesday night. Maria is
also expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches
with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches in the northern Leeward
Islands through Tuesday night. This rainfall could cause
life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.
SURF:  Swells generated by Maria are expected to begin affecting the
Lesser Antilles by Sunday night.  These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult
products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.
$$
Forecaster Beven
NNNN

And because we at VI Strong like to believe in little miracles, because that gets everyone through the day! I am happy to say tonight that the girl on the roof with the VI Flag, one of my closest personal friends arrived safe and sound here in Indiana tonight, to a warm welcome and lots of hugs! To the group of people, some of whom I have never met, who helped to get her here, Thank you!!!